895
ACUS01 KWNS 200041
SWODY1
SPC AC 200039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, WITH MINIMAL TO NO LIGHTNING FLASHES, MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG-DAMAGING GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
..MID-ATLANTIC
EARLY-EVENING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. 100KT 500MB SPEED MAX IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS NC TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST BY
20/12Z AS 180DM HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, ARCING FROM CENTRAL PA-CENTRAL VA-WESTERN NC. THIS LINE WILL
SURGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE RISK
FOR GUSTY WINDS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM IAD EXHIBITED MODEST 0-3KM LAPSE
RATES, BUT NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY AND A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. LIGHTNING MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP WITH THIS LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION, BUT SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS, ALONG WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.
..DARROW.. 10/20/2025
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