846
ACUS01 KWNS 201946
SWODY1
SPC AC 201945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
U.S.
NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THIS OUTLOOK FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..BROYLES.. 10/20/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1115 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025/
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE CONUS: A SHARP, WELL-DEFINED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND A LOWER-AMPLITUDE, MORE BROAD WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS
IS CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND FAR SOUTHERN FL, WHICH REMAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND TODAY, WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY OCCLUDED AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS MORE NORTHERLY. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS
ONGOING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND NOW, BUT SCANT BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION
HAS KEPT STORMS SHALLOW THUS FAR. A FEW INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND AS WELL AS A FEW STRONGER,
CONVECTIVE AUGMENTED GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH FL AS WELL,
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT.
TWO OTHER AREAS COULD SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD AMID STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AA INSTANCE OR TWO OF SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO NORTHWEST MS AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL WITH VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page