789
ACUS01 KWNS 220517
SWODY1
SPC AC 220516
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THREAT IS NEGLIGIBLE TODAY.
..DISCUSSION
DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CONUS WILL
INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY1
PERIOD. SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO LOWER
LATITUDES WHICH WILL FORCE A FRONT DEEP INTO THE GULF BASIN. AS A
RESULT, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
EVEN SO, LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS MUCH
OF NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND OVER THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER REGION WHERE
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. A NOTABLE
UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CA AND THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE
INLAND AS A 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY INTO AZ LATE IN THE PERIOD. PW VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
THAT HIGH SO INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
DESPITE THE WEAK BUOYANCY, LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THE DEEPER
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS, INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL CA BY MID DAY, THEN
SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY EVENING.
..DARROW/THORNTON.. 10/22/2025
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