136
ACUS01 KWNS 221629
SWODY1
SPC AC 221627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF CYCLONES OVER NORTH
AMERICA, A MORE BROAD CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND ANOTHER MORE COMPACT CYCLONE FARTHER
WEST JUST OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A PAIR OF LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE: AN
OCCLUDED LOW BENEATH THE PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER LAKE HURON AND ANOTHER
TRIPLE-POINT LOW FARTHER EAST OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ME.
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING THE
COASTAL ME SURFACE LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE WARM SECTOR
FARTHER OFFSHORE, LIMITING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. LIGHTNING IS STILL
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS DOWNEAST ME. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHERE CONTINUED
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT
DEEPER UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WHERE WARM LAKE
TEMPERATURES LOCALLY STEEPEN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FARTHER WEST, THE CYCLONE OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA AND FAR SOUTHERN NV
DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF
THIS CYCLONE FROM CENTRAL CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND AZ. INCREASING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WESTERN NM.
..MOSIER/WEINMAN.. 10/22/2025
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