977
ACUS01 KWNS 221954
SWODY1
SPC AC 221953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PRIMARY CHANGE MADE TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WAS TO TRIM
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER BASIN AND THE NORTHEAST, WHERE THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER
TROUGHS ARE SHUNTING SCANT BUOYANCY NORTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS, REDUCING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE,
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/22/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025/
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF CYCLONES OVER NORTH
AMERICA, A MORE BROAD CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND ANOTHER MORE COMPACT CYCLONE FARTHER
WEST JUST OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A PAIR OF LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE: AN
OCCLUDED LOW BENEATH THE PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER LAKE HURON AND ANOTHER
TRIPLE-POINT LOW FARTHER EAST OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ME.
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING THE
COASTAL ME SURFACE LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE WARM SECTOR
FARTHER OFFSHORE, LIMITING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. LIGHTNING IS STILL
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS DOWNEAST ME. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHERE CONTINUED
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT
DEEPER UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WHERE WARM LAKE
TEMPERATURES LOCALLY STEEPEN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FARTHER WEST, THE CYCLONE OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CA AND FAR SOUTHERN NV
DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF
THIS CYCLONE FROM CENTRAL CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND AZ. INCREASING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WESTERN NM.
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