244
ACUS01 KWNS 230541
SWODY1
SPC AC 230539
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW IS ADVANCING EAST IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. EARLY MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 24/00Z, AND SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST,
LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN SPEEDS SHOULD EXCEED 40KT ACROSS
WEST TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY FOCUSED/INTENSE, LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN EXTENDED
CONVECTIVE EVENT IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD EXTENDING INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. 70S DEW
POINTS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE 60F DEW POINTS
ARE NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS KIMBLE COUNT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36HR ACROSS TX INTO OK AND THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND
FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST OK BY MID AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THIS WIND
SHIFT AND MODEST 0-3KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID BUOYANCY BY PEAK
HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MIDLEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAIL IS LIKELY THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEAR THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. SEVERE RISK WILL
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR
OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL NOT MOVE APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
UPSTREAM, ISOLATED ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SOME RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE.
..DARROW/THORNTON.. 10/23/2025
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