859
ACUS01 KWNS 240039
SWODY1
SPC AC 240038
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT.
..01Z UPDATE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE WARRANTED TO SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION REMAIN.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS EVENING.
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS FEATURE WELL WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING NOW SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION. WELL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE, REMNANTS OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL
VORT ARE LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF OKC, SHIFTING EAST. STRONG-SEVERE
CONVECTION IS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG A CORRIDOR OF
MODEST LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OKC EXHIBITED AROUND
1700 J/KG MLCAPE WITH WIND PROFILES FAVORING SUPERCELLS.
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN DRAPED FROM
WEST TX INTO SOUTHERN OK AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
AID ONGOING ACTIVITY, AND NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12Z. 00Z SOUNDING
FROM MAF WAS NEGLIGIBLY INHIBITED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX
INTO THE PANHANDLE, A PROLONGED CONVECTIVE EVENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
THROUGH WIND, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
..DARROW.. 10/24/2025
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