347
ACUS11 KWNS 240135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240135
TXZ000-240330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN INTO ROLLING PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 240135Z - 240330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS COULD
OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD
IN THE VICINITY OF MIDLAND. KMAF RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW
BEGINNING TO PUSH AWAY FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. FARTHER
NORTHEAST, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER AND STORMS HAVE MAINTAINED
SOME INTENSITY. DESPITE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
INCREASING MLCIN, THE INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOTED ON
REGIONAL VADS AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT
SUGGESTS SOME ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST PERHAPS TO AROUND MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NEWER UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE
MODERATE SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT OR ABOVE 7 C/KM (FROM
EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS). HOWEVER, CORES WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE
QUICKLY. ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
..WENDT/HART.. 10/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31650271 31970278 32210274 33230046 33499987 33599945
33299909 32859899 31810144 31470235 31650271
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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