248
ACUS01 KWNS 240536
SWODY1
SPC AC 240535
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR.
..TEXAS
UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AND
WILL ONLY ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
DAY1 PERIOD. EARLY THIS MORNING, A NOTABLE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG
BEND REGION BY 25/00Z BEFORE THE STRONGEST FLOW ADVANCES INTO
NORTHEAST TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW-LATITUDE SPEED MAX
WILL ENCOURAGE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS WEST TX, THEN
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS
TX.
A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM WEST TX
INTO THE RED RIVER REGION AT 0530Z, AND THIS IS REINFORCING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY NORTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONGEST LLJ WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MODULATE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE EVENTS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING, BUT MODEST BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX AS MIDLEVEL FLOW
INCREASES DURING THE DAY.
WHILE LLJ WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BOTH
PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND EARLY IN THE PERIOD, LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD
ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS WEST TX. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AND PROPAGATE EAST AS A LARGER COMPLEX
OF STORMS. STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS, BUT STORM
MODE WILL LIKELY BE COMPLEX WITH STORM MERGERS AND ONE OR MORE MCSS
LIKELY. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS, BUT WIND WILL BE
MORE COMMON WITH LINEAR ACTIVITY. CONVECTION SHOULD EASILY ADVANCE
BEYOND THE I-35 CORRIDOR, POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
TX BY 25/12Z.
..DARROW/WENDT.. 10/24/2025
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