603
ACUS01 KWNS 241943
SWODY1
SPC AC 241941
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL, SEVERE
GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE 5%
TORNADO AND 15% WIND (SLIGHT RISK) PROBABILITIES INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE DFW METRO
SHOW A POCKET OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD ADVECT TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE IT WILL
LIKELY BE IMPINGED UPON BY AN APPROACHING CONVECTIVE LINE (WHICH IS
IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN TX PER KMAF
IMAGERY). FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 150 M2/S2 IN TANDEM WITH A
MODEST UPTICK IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS
COMBINATION OF LOCALIZED HIGH-QUALITY MOISTURE AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE MAY BE MORE PROBABLE. THIS IDEA IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR/RRFS RUNS, WHICH DEPICT A SECONDARY UH
MAXIMUM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS APPROXIMATELY DURING THE 23-03 UTC
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES REQUIRED. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW AND MCD #2168
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..MOORE.. 10/24/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1106 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025/
..TEXAS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN TX INTO THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH AND 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS SUPPORTING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST TX THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
INITIALLY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT DRAPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL ONLY SHIFT
MODESTLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS ORIENTED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL OK
INTO EAST TX. LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON BETWEEN THE
TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS HEATING TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS
WESTERN TX, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. MLCAPE AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED AMID SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES. VEERING
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN ENLARGED AND FAVORABLY CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH, WHILE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
FAVOR ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS ABOVE 2-3 KM. IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES/MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, ANY
CELLULAR/SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL,
WITH ISOLATED 2+ INCH HAIL POSSIBLE.
SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AIDED BY SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
0-3 KM MLCAPE WILL REMAIN MODEST. FURTHERMORE, THE 850 MB LOW-LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.
WHILE SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. NEVERTHELESS
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN TOWARD CENTRAL TX.
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY BECOME MESSY QUICKLY GIVEN STORM MERGERS
AND A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. WITH TIME, LINEAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TX
INTO THE EVENING. ONE OR MORE MCSS MAY DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. LINEAR CONVECTION WILL POSE A
RISK OF STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
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