873
ACUS11 KWNS 250556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250556
LAZ000-TXZ000-250730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 250556Z - 250730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, THOUGH A BRIEF/EMBEDDED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM KEWX SHOWS AN MCS TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 40 KT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.
WHILE THE LEADING-LINE UPDRAFTS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO, THE WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND MOIST
PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS -- ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX STRUCTURES (I.E.,
NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED PORTIONS OF THE LINE) IN THE NEAR TERM.
WITH TIME, THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
TX COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AROUND 40 KT OF
LINE-ORTHOGONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/EMBEDDED TORNADO RISK -- AIDED BY A
MODEST/GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND RELATED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 10/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29359768 29879737 30559618 30809487 30649392 30279375
29749378 28649542 28439625 28609691 28889744 29359768
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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