879
ACUS11 KWNS 251047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251047
LAZ000-TXZ000-251215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631...
VALID 251047Z - 251215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN MCS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING, POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631. A LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE
WATCH (SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY) MAY BE WARRANTED.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED MCS CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD
AT AROUND 35 KT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX TOWARD SOUTHWEST LA THIS
MORNING. RECENT VWP DATA FROM KHGX SAMPLED A 45-KT REAR-INFLOW JET,
AND SEVERAL SEVERE-WIND REPORTS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE.
AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST LA, UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS, MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (EVIDENT IN LCH
VWP DATA), AND AROUND 40 KT OF LINE-ORTHOGONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT ITS MAINTENANCE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH A BRIEF EMBEDDED/MESOVORTEX TORNADO ALSO
REMAINS POSSIBLE -- GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. AS SUCH, A LOCAL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
EXTENSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631 MAY BE WARRANTED, TO
INCLUDE JEFFERSON DAVIS, ACADIA, AND VERMILION PARISHES UNTIL 13Z OR
14Z.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 10/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 29479219 29579428 29769436 30569418 30739393 30629324
30159209 29829196 29479219
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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