079
ACUS11 KWNS 252046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252046
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-252215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OREGON INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN IDAHO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252046Z - 252215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE GUST OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH ONE OF THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE, MRMS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY, AND NLDN
LIGHTNING DATA ALL SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION
OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HERE, MODEST DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCANT BUOYANCY WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. AN 80+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS BEGINNING TO PIVOT
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH, AND IS POISED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS (AS SHOWN BY 20Z MESOANALYSIS). THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND PROVIDE A STRONGER WIND FIELD
ALOFT FOR SEVERE GUSTS, SHOULD EFFECTIVE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
BE REALIZED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NEWLY DEVELOPED STORMS
WILL OSCILLATE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER, IF A STORM OR TWO COULD
SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN, A COUPLE OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 10/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
LAT...LON 45001894 46161910 46831880 47151825 47291740 47141682
46801624 46251588 45581594 45131628 44851673 44661741
44611824 45001894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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