651
ACUS01 KWNS 260052
SWODY1
SPC AC 260051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
..SUMMARY
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, AND PERHAPS AS EARLY
AS LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.
..01Z UPDATE
AS A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION PIVOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN
THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, MODEST STRENGTHENING OF INITIALLY WEAK
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS
THAT THIS MAY INCLUDE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IN
EXCESS OF 30 KTS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ACROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AFTER 06Z. AS THIS OCCURS, FORCING
FOR ASCENT, SUPPORTED BY AT LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
BENEATH AN INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD OVERSPREADING THE
REGION, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000+ J/KG,
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, PERHAPS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND AN UPSCALE
GROWING CLUSTER OR TWO, MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 10/26/2025
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