015
ACUS01 KWNS 260454
SWODY1
SPC AC 260452
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL
PLAIN...
..SUMMARY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN GULF
COASTAL VICINITY THIS MORNING, THEN MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG, GENERALLY ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMERGING FROM THIS REGIME PROGRESSES NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC LATITUDES, ANOTHER
IS RAPIDLY PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
DOWNSTREAM, AMPLIFICATION OF MID/UPPER FLOW IS ALREADY WELL
UNDERWAY, INCLUDING BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE SOUTHERN HUDSON/JAMES BAY VICINITY,
AND CONSOLIDATING/DIGGING TROUGHING NEAR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY EVOLVE
WITHIN THE TROUGHING OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, WHILE A SHORT-LIVED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVOLVES WITHIN
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE, A LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS MAY SLOWLY REFORM EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/MID
SOUTH, WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO ITS SOUTH OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST VICINITY.
BENEATH THE CONFLUENT EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN REGIME, EXPANSIVE COOL
SURFACE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO PERSIST, AND MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE
INFLUENCE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE
MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH PERHAPS A WEAK EMBEDDED LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL PLAIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
..NORTHERN GULF COAST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN, SEASONABLY MOIST,
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF COASTAL AREAS. A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER, THE LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EVOLVING EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS,
WILL MOSTLY ACCOMPANY THE DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW. THE
ENVIRONMENT MOST CONDUCIVE TO THIS MAY EVOLVE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST.
..KERR/WENDT.. 10/26/2025
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