913
ACUS11 KWNS 260832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260832
MSZ000-LAZ000-261030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 260832Z - 261030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI FOR CONTINUED SEVERE RISK DOWNSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH
632. THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WATCH IS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY AS
THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS IN TORNADO
WATCH 632. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AMID POOR LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR. NEVERTHELESS, A
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ROTATING
STORMS -- CHARACTERIZED BY ENLARGED/CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS (PER HDC VWP) AND LOWER 70S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LA AND SOUTHERN MS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT, A
CONTINUED CONDITIONAL RISK OF A TORNADO OR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS IS
BEING MONITORED. IT IS UNCLEAR IF ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED,
THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 10/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30209067 31369049 31559014 31508958 31398926 31018897
30298903 29688947 29509036 29769064 30209067
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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