340
ACUS01 KWNS 270049
SWODY1
SPC AC 270048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST...AND NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...
..SUMMARY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT AREAS
NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE GULF COAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
..01Z
EXPANSIVE COLD SURFACE RIDGING, CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION, IS MAINTAINING A CONSIDERABLE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, AS BROADLY
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE GULF COAST
VICINITY, MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT.
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW, HIGH RESOLUTION
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH EVOLVING
EMBEDDED CYCLONIC MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS. BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA, SOME INCREASE IN SUCH ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS
POSSIBLE NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. BUT POTENTIAL FOR
INLAND DEVELOPMENT WITH AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEYOND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS APPEARS RATHER LOW.
NEAR FLORIDA'S SPACE COAST, COASTAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY MOIST,
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ONSHORE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO SUFFICIENT LIFT TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH MODEST WESTERLY MID/UPPER
WESTERLIES, IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE TO OCCASIONAL EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INTO AT
LEAST MID TO LATE EVENING.
..KERR.. 10/27/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page