518
ACUS11 KWNS 271027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271027
FLZ000-271200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271027Z - 271200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO AND WATERSPOUTS
CONTINUES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE RISK, THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
UNCERTAIN, THOUGH TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED CLOSELY.
DISCUSSION...AFTER SEVERAL STORM MERGERS, A WELL-ESTABLISHED
SUPERCELL HAS EVOLVED ABOUT 13 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE PANAMA CITY
COAST AREA. RADAR DATA OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES, COUPLED WITH
FORECASTER EXPERIENCE, SUGGEST HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TWO WATERSPOUTS
HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS SUPERCELL. THE STORM IS FOCUSED WITHIN A
PERSISTENT NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE AND IS
BEING AIDED BY 150-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH (PER EVX/TLH VWP DATA).
WHILE THE SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
OFFSHORE WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE/HEAT FLUXES ARE AIDING IN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY, LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE DO SUPPORT SOME RISK OF INLAND
PROGRESSION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, A TORNADO OR TWO COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT -- GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL MESOCYLONE. GIVEN
THE SPATIALLY CONFINED AREA AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OF A
TORNADO RISK DEVELOPING ONSHORE, THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 10/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 29578538 29988606 30208610 30368587 30428540 30208474
29908449 29538477 29578538
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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