596
ACUS01 KWNS 271955
SWODY1
SPC AC 271954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT
WAS A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF 5% WIND (MARGINAL) RISK PROBABILITIES
INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA. A REMNANT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGAN
IN THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS
IT MIGRATES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN FL COAST. KTBW
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-BALANCED UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT CONVERGENCE ZONE,
AND RECENT GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES,
INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST HOUR. ALTHOUGH
PORTIONS OF THIS LINE HAVE ONLY PRODUCED 20-30 MPH GUSTS THUS FAR AS
IT MAKES LANDFALL, THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE STORM MAY IMPACT
NEAR/NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA IN THE COMING HOURS, WARRANTING AN
EXPANSION OF RISK PROBABILITIES. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS, SEE
RECENTLY ISSUED MCD #2189 AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
..MOORE.. 10/27/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1112 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025/
..FLORIDA
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE
FROM THE APALACHICOLA VICINITY, SO THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THIS AREA. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AS CONTINUED STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS OVER THIS AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONT. EVEN
THOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODEST (REFERENCE 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM TBW), WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN WITH HEIGHT THROUGH MID/UPPER
LEVELS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
AROUND 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CORES AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND MOSTLY
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY
AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION. THIS SHOULD HINDER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY MORE THAN MEAGER BUOYANCY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN THOUGH SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING IN EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS,
THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO
INCLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
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