644
ACUS01 KWNS 280100
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING OFFSHORE. WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING, THE OBSERVED, WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS ARE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO CLOSELY TIED TO THE DIGGING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR COULD PROMOTE SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION, BUT A COOLING, DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL.
AS THE UPPER-TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN NEAR THE RED RIVER.
MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND 850 MB WARM ADVECTION MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS IN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONG HERE AS WELL. AN OCCASIONAL STRONGER STORM
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LOW.
..WENDT.. 10/28/2025
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