511
ACUS11 KWNS 280805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280805
ARZ000-OKZ000-281030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WESTERN
ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 280805Z - 281030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WESTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...AT THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET (AROUND
35-40 KT PER FWS VWP) AND RELATED WARM-ADVECTION PLUME, ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING ACROSS EASTERN
OK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS MOISTENING CONTINUES WITHIN THE EFFECTIVE
INFLOW LAYER FOR THIS ACTIVITY (ROOTED AT AROUND 900 MB), MUCAPE
SHOULD INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY,
COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MAY PROMOTE
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED CELLULAR STRUCTURES WITH TRANSIENT ROTATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL (UP TO 1 INCH) CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
THAT EVOLVE.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 10/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34639368 34239374 33929422 34039501 34229550 34509618
34829666 35149683 35489674 35859634 35949592 35819528
35299424 34639368
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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