686
ACUS01 KWNS 281246
SWODY1
SPC AC 281245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA/ARKLATEX...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
TORNADO RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
..EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ARKLATEX/LOUISIANA
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A RELATED
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING, INTERCEPTING A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS
(MID/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS) THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN
LOUISIANA. AMPLE WARM-SECTOR PRE-FRONTAL HEATING WILL OCCUR INTO THE
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS, WHERE
MIXED-LAYER BUOYANCY MAY EXCEED 2000 J/KG MLCAPE.
INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED INTO
MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE ADVANCING FRONT, WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT (45+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR) SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. ANY SUCH SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO RISK. DAMAGING WINDS MAY
ALSO OCCUR AS STORMS INCREASE/MERGE AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHWARD FROM
FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA BY EARLY/MID-EVENING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE OVERALL RISK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED, BUT SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REEVALUATE ANY NEED FOR
SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES ON A SUB-REGIONAL BASIS.
..GUYER/WEINMAN.. 10/28/2025
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