968
ACUS01 KWNS 290038
SWODY1
SPC AC 290036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL, MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
..WESTERN GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG A
RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIDELY-SPACED STRONG
STORMS ARE ONGOING JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS MOIST AXIS, WITH THE
MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE LAKE
CHARLES 00Z SOUNDING HAS A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 50 TO 55 KNOT RANGE. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW
TO MID-LEVELS AND 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS 175 M2/S2. THIS
COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND/OR WIND DAMAGE, BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..BROYLES.. 10/29/2025
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