963
ACUS01 KWNS 291621
SWODY1
SPC AC 291619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
..EASTERN NC/VA TIDEWATER REGION TONIGHT
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL PROGRESS FROM THE MS VALLEY
THIS MORNING TO THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRAW THE (CURRENTLY OFFSHORE) MOIST SECTOR
INLAND ACROSS EASTERN NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER REGION BY TONIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 70 F AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S, WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK BUOYANCY
ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. HODOGRAPH LENGTH/CURVATURE WILL FAVOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS, WITH A LOW-END WIND DAMAGE AND/OR
TORNADO THREAT.
..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 10/29/2025
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