179
ACUS01 KWNS 301242
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY TODAY.
..MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA
THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST,
WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG POLAR JET SIMILARLY SPREADING FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BENEATH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE/DELMARVA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST/EAST NEW
YORK BY TONIGHT, WITH A NORTHWARD-FLUX OF A SEASONALLY MOIST AIR
MASS (LOW/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST/I-95 GENERAL VICINITY.
THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO
SEMI-INTERFACE WITH A NORTHWARD-TRANSITIONING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH ACCENTUATED BY
BACKED (SOUTHEASTERLY) NEAR-SURFACE WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK. THIS SCENARIO COULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS, INCLUDING
RELATED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO TODAY.
..GUYER/WEINMAN.. 10/30/2025
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