877
ACUS11 KWNS 301916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301916
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-302115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301916Z - 302115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
PA/MD/VA, WITH A PROMINENT MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT EXTENDING NORTHWARD OUT
OF EASTERN VA AND THE DELMARVA. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST PA, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NJ.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS HEATING NOW INTO PA AND NJ, WITH SCATTERED
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHEAST PA.
OVERALL, INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK, WITH MLCAPE ONLY TO ABOUT 500
J/KG. A SMALL POCKET OF EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 EXISTS AHEAD
OF THE LOW AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO NJ.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY
PROFILES, HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY WITH HEATING WILL STILL
STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCALLY. ALTHOUGH THE HODOGRAPHS MAY
INDICATE ROTATION POTENTIAL WITHIN ANY STORMS, STORM MOTIONS TOWARD
THE NORTH WILL MEAN ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WOULD HAVE LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME WITH ACCESS TO SBCAPE. AS SUCH,
THE TORNADO RISK REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, ANY STRONGER/MORE
ESTABLISHED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 10/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39397619 39657631 40067641 40437647 40557604 40367499
40017474 39367471 38917491 38547555 38587593 38897615
39397619
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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