386
FNUS21 KWNS 181633
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
NO CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. RECEPTIVE FUELS AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MITIGATE
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND NEARLY COLLOCATED SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TODAY. GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
CONCENTRATED FARTHER WEST ALONG THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-30% RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT OR BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS GA AND
THE CAROLINAS WHERE DRIER FUELS ARE FOUND, LIMITING A BROADER FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
..WILLIAMS.. 11/18/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1239 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR TODAY ACROSS THE
COUNTRY, THOUGH LOCALIZED CONCERNS MAY EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY-MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW, WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE
WEST, ANOTHER UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CA
COAST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH OF
THESE SYSTEMS, HOWEVER, INCREASING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDENT
WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY BENIGN
TO LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS
FOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT SOME RETURNING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION, BUT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS THAT RH MINIMUMS IN THE
20-30% RANGE WILL BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIMIT WIND SPEEDS TO MAINLY NEAR/BELOW 10 MPH BASED ON THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF RECENT HREF/NBM RUNS. HOWEVER, A FEW LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF
15-20 MPH THAT MAY SUPPORT VERY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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