467
ACUS11 KWNS 232316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232316
TXZ000-OKZ000-240045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242...
VALID 232316Z - 240045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
02Z (9 PM CDT) FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR, INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
CONSOLIDATED IN TO A LINE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CIMARRON
COUNTY IN THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN PARTS
OF DALLAM AND HARTLEY COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AS OF
2310 UTC. RECENT KAMA BASE VELOCITY DATA INDICATE MULTIPLE CHANNELS
OF STRONGER WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE, SUGGESTIVE OF A
GRADUALLY ORGANIZING COLD POOL. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE IS MODESTLY MOIST WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG, PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS.
THE CURRENT KAMA VWP IS SAMPLING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE
LOWEST 2-3-KM AGL, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE 01-03Z
TIME FRAME, EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO THE
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THAT COUPLED WITH AROUND 30-35 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM LINE INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY 02Z (9 PM CDT) OR EARLIER, WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
LARGE HAIL.
..MEAD.. 05/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
LAT...LON 35770303 36310298 36520279 36600249 36390162 35790113
35320128 35050156 34990207 35420289 35770303
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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