692
ACUS11 KWNS 240201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240201
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-240300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242...
VALID 240201Z - 240300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SPORADIC WITH TIME THROUGH 04Z (11 PM CDT).
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0145 UTC, MOSAIC RADAR DATA SAMPLED A BOWING LINE
OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SYSTEM MOTION OF 35 TO 40 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS REACHED A MATURE STATE, FEATURING A TRAILING
STRATIFORM REGION AND ASSOCIATED 35-40 KT REAR-INFLOW JET, PER KAMA
VWP. THE SYSTEM COLD POOL HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO SURGE AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPDRAFTS, AT LEAST IN THE AMARILLO VICINITY, WITH ECHO-TOP
TRENDS DECREASING WITH TIME, SUGGESTING THAT THE PARENT UPDRAFTS ARE
BEING TO ASSUME AN INCREASING UPSHEAR TILT. A RECENT WIND GUST TO 75
MPH WAS OBSERVED JUST NORTH OF AMARILLO, BUT OTHERWISE, GUSTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE MCS
MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH WILL OFFSET
GRADUAL COOLING TO SOME EXTENT, WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WHICH
COUPLED WITH A GROWING COLD POOL-SHEAR IMBALANCE, IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERE WIND GUSTS BECOMING MORE SPORADIC WITH TIME THROUGH
04Z AS THE MCS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
IN THE TX SOUTH PLAINS, STORMS HAVE MERGED INTO CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE MCS
TO MERGE WITH THIS SEPARATE REGIME IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE OR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THAT PROCESS
OCCURS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL.
..MEAD.. 05/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33680306 35620303 35620214 36520212 36510056 33350046
33350308 33680306
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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