568
ACUS11 KWNS 080946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080946
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-081145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080946Z - 081145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONG
TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...STORM CELLS WITHIN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAVE SHOWN
OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. GREATER BUOYANCY IS DISPLACED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH,
BUT LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING) AND ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR, ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER
STORMS CAN MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INGEST GREATER MOISTURE/BUOYANCY. THIS
COULD OCCUR IF COLD POOLS CAN CONGEAL LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
WITH DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS EXPECTED, STORMS
MAY BE UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKEN BEFORE THEY CAN MOVE
SOUTHWARD.
..WENDT/HART.. 06/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40150211 41430245 41880228 41810109 41090002 40319991
40020037 39980152 40150211
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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