088
ACUS11 KWNS 081840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081839
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-082045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081839Z - 082045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING A RISK FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
MCV LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS, MO. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ONGOING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MCV FROM
EAST-CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT, WITH A MARGINALLY MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BAND LOCATED IN EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS RECENTLY PRODUCING
A MEASURED 42 KT WIND GUST. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CONVECTION TO
EVOLVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WITH LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTING POCKETS OF MODESTLY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7+ C/KM AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES, ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH (AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST)
MAY OCCUR WITH WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS. WHILE WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 20-25 KTS) WILL LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, A BRIEF TORNADO OR LANDSPOUT ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SHOULD A MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT INTERACT WITH ENHANCED
SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY OR WEAKLY-CURVED, LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE EXPECTATION FOR
LIMITED SEVERE COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 06/08/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 35818893 35898924 36138936 36698934 37228927 38778893
39218876 39868852 40178830 40328809 40408781 40378754
39898707 39168677 38408671 37908676 37578686 37088702
36558745 36058834 35888874 35818893
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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