469
FXZS60 NSTU 100100
AFDPPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
200 PM SST TUE JUN 9 2026
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ZEALAND IS STARTING TO BUILD
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER AMERICAN SAMOA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASCAT SHOWS WINDS EXCEEDING 25 MPH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERRITORY FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND OVER THE AMERICAN
SAMOA ISLANDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY HAS PREEMPTIVELY
BEEN ISSUED FOR WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
THURSDAY.
00Z RAOB UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS REVEAL AN ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVELS, BUY DRY AND STABLE MID-LEVELS. THIS
SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILE LED TO SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE STABLE
MID-LEVELS HAVE HELD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PASSING SHOWERS. THIS
STABLE MID-LEVEL PROFILE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
NEAR NEW ZEALAND. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WEEK, MODELS
INDICATE THAT A TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FIJIAN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH IS
UNCLEAR. OUR FORECASTS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL / FLOODING IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. BY TUESDAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST, REMAINING BREEZY BUT FINALLY DECREASING BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
MARINE
WAVE HEIGHTS AT AUNU'U BUOY HAVE REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AT AROUND 5 FEET THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, WITH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TONIGHT, SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO
ROUGH CONDITIONS TONIGHT (7 TO 9 FEET). GIVEN THE RAPID CHANGE IN
WINDS, WAVES, AND SURF THAT IS FORECAST, SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT.
BY WEDNESDAY, SEAS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS
(9-12 FEET) AS A LARGE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL COMBINES WITH THE
WIND DRIVEN WAVES. THESE LONG PERIOD TIMES WILL MAKE HIGH SURF
WARNING ISSUANCE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SURF
ZONE OF SOUTHERLY FACING SHORELINES. ON THURSDAY, OCEAN
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT THEIR MOST DANGEROUS (SEAS UP TO
16 FEET, SURF UP TO 20 FEET) AS WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE STRENGTH
AND THE LARGE SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES TO BATTER THE SHORELINES.
HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.
BARTON
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