822
FXAK68 PAFC 200200
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUES TO BE
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ACTIVE WEATHER MOST
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL LIFT UP FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE CURRENT WAVE OVER THE COASTLINE IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE SOME SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL CHUGACH AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. FOR
THE COPPER BASIN SPECIFICALLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, WITH ITS GALE-
FORCE FRONT MOVING OVER THE COAST BY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FELT OVER KODIAK ISLAND, THE
EASTERN KENAI, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, CORDOVA, AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
COASTLINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNKNOWN WITH CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. AS FOR
THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL, INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL, THE MAT-
SU, AND THE WESTERN KENAI, EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN THESE
AREAS BEING GENERALLY DOWNSLOPED AND LEAD TO MINIMAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE COMING DAYS.
-BS
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)...
A SURFACE LOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SUFFICIENT COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW IS MIXED INTO THE SYSTEM TO REDUCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING FOR THE EASTERN BERING BY THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AND EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW STALLS AND WEAKENS
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ITS WEAKENED
STATE, THE LOW LIMPS INTO BRISTOL BAY ON SATURDAY, AND ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PERSISTS
ALONG THE COASTAL MAINLAND. THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUES TO LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7) SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL ALSO GENERALLY EXPERIENCE LOW PRESSURE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALASKAN MAINLAND
AND ITS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE ALASKA-CANADA BORDER.
THERE IS MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG TERM. EQUAL
WEIGHT WAS GIVEN BETWEEN ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS THEY ARE IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER FEATURES. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTS TO QUICKLY MOVE IN SUCCESSION ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL REGIONS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
AND UNSEASONABLE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND GULF THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER COASTAL ELEVATIONS WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE SYSTEM.
-DD/RUX
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. A FEW
WEAK EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH THURSDAY,
BUT ANY PRECIPITATION OR SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CEILINGS LOOKS UNLIKELY
WITH ANY OF THEM.
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