633
FXAK68 PAFC 300114
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
514 PM AKDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
CURRENTLY, WEATHER IN SOUTHCENTRAL IS A BIT UNEVENTFUL AS THE
REGION SITS UNDER A LOCALIZED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNNY SKIES
AND CALM WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL AND INLAND
REGIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS RATHER DULL WEATHER IS THE
PRESENCE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL SMALL GAP AREAS IN THE
MAINLAND AS WELL AS THE BARREN ISLANDS, KAMISHAK, AND SITKINAK GAP
REGIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALLOWING FOR GAP WINDS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. COME SUNDAY, THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE IN RESPONSE. AS THE WAVE EXITS, SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT OF SNOWFALL IN
WHITTIER AND TURNAGAIN PASS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO EVERYWHERE, WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON MONDAY,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE LARGE HIGH TO THE WEST AND
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. GAP WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AKPEN WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE, REACHING GALE FORCE AROUND KODIAK
ISLAND. THE VALDEZ, SEWARD, AND WHITTIER GAP REGIONS WILL HAVE
STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 35 MPH. THOMPSON PASS WILL
SIMILARLY BE QUITE WINDY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
-JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS
PRODUCING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE BERING SEA THIS
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE BERING AND
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DRIVES GAP WINDS LOCALLY TO
GALE FORCE THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK AS WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WHICH DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
PERTURBATION WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT, SUPPORTING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. IN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS UP UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UNDER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, MEANING
CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES INCREASE ON
SUNDAY TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH WARMER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
BERING SEA, BUT GRADUALLY COOL OVERNIGHT, SO PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS RAIN OR DRIZZLE, BUT LIKELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, FOG WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
SIMILARLY BUILDS UP IN THE MARINE LAYER UNDER THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT. MONDAY NIGHT, A POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN
BERING, BRINGING RAIN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE THE MOST
NOTABLE IMPACT OF THE FRONT, WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND TO
REPLACE THE HIGH PRESSURE. AS A RESULT, THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
POSSIBLY THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SEE SNOW POTENTIAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY)
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION IS
INTERRUPTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM OVER THE BERING STRAIT
ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BUT
DWINDLE OUT BY THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY, A NORTH PACIFIC SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL, BRINGING RAIN, WIDESPREAD GALES AND AREAS OF STORM-
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN ON FRIDAY AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A KAMCHATKA LOW PUSHES ITS FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
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