647
FXAK68 PAFC 302319
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS ARE QUITE UNEVENTFUL IN SOUTHCENTRAL AS
AREAS OF WEAK FORCING PASS BY THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT.
SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE WINDSTORM AS THEY SAY BECAUSE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE AROUND THE LARGE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND CALM WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN MOST INLAND AREAS, REGIONS SUCH AS PASSAGE CANAL,
RESURRECTION BAY, THE VALDEZ GAPS, AND THE GAP REGIONS AROUND
KODIAK ISLAND WILL SEE THEIR WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY, POTENTIALLY
GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH. WIND SPEEDS IN THESE REGIONS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS COMPRESSED
SOUTHWARD AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. ANOTHER EFFECT OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE, INCREASING TO THE MID 40S FOR INLAND REGIONS TO EVEN
THE LOW 50S FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND ON TUESDAY.
THE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND
BROAD PASS. THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO PERSIST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
-JAR
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE BERING AND LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DRIVES GAP WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THEY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING
AS WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, SUPPORTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BUILDS UP UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UNDER THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE, MEANING CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE ON SUNDAY TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR SOME
LOCATIONS WITH WARMER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE BERING SEA, BUT
GRADUALLY COOL OVERNIGHT, SO PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OR
DRIZZLE, BUT LIKELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH MONDAY WITH THE
EXIT OF THE DISTURBANCE, THOUGH LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT
PRECIPITATION REMAIN POSSIBLE.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, FOG WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE SIMILARLY
BUILDS UP IN THE MARINE LAYER UNDER THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. MONDAY
NIGHT, A POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN BERING,
BRINGING RAIN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LARGELY BELOW GALE FORCE. THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE THE MOST
NOTABLE IMPACT OF THE FRONT, WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND TO
REPLACE THE WARMER AIR BROUGHT IN BY HIGH PRESSURE. MONDAY NIGHT,
COLDER AIR NUDGES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT, BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW, WITH CONDITIONS FOR
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED
FOR THE KUSKOKWIM REGION OR IF IT REMAINS FURTHER NORTH OVER THE
INTERIOR HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE
BERING FRONT PUSHES EAST TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS BRINGING PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, WHILE
MORE STEADY RAIN IS SEEN IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY TO SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING ELONGATES SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW THAT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE MOST INTENSE WINDS, STORM FORCE
GUSTS, ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH PEAK WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CAUSE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHCENTRAL TO ARRIVE AT THE
SURFACE AS RAIN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN, WHERE ANY
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS SNOW. THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
FOR KODIAK, THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA, AND NORTHERN GULF COAST.
A NEW FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHEN THE FRONT OF
A KAMCHATKA LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD, REACHING AS FAR AS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
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