468
FXAK68 PAFC 080027
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKDT WED MAY 7 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE THAT HAS BROUGHT A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TODAY AND HAS BEGUN
TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. WHAT BEGAN AS A NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS BEEN OVERCOME WITH A MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS THANKS TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA HAVING THE BEST SHOT AT SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG COOK INLET REMAINS FAVORABLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEYS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE KENAI-COOK INLET COAST AND
ANCHORAGE MAY BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR
THURSDAY. AS THE LOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT
WEST, THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY BY TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL DRIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
TALKEETNAS WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY. BY FRIDAY MORNING, THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE CURRENTLY DECAYING LOW
IN THE GULF WILL WORK TO REORGANIZE ITSELF AND WILL SWING A
SHORTWAVE UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF FROM EAST TO WEST, INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS TO SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE WITH
THIS WAVE WHILE INLAND AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
- JH/RUX
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS
AS WELL WITH LIGHTNING STRIKE POTENTIAL BEING INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND CONTINUES TO PROMOTE LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY CLIP THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND
NUNIVAK ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A LARGER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL SEND ITS FRONT, ALONG WITH A PUSH
OF WARMER AIR, EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH
SMALL-CRAFT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS UP TO GALE-FORCE. GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD BAY LOOKS TO SEE THE GUSTIEST OF
WINDS WITH WINDS APPROACHING 40 MPH BY FRIDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
ITSELF STRADDLES THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND MAKES IT THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS FOR SATURDAY. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS
SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AS ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE LONGTERM FORECAST PERIOD, SPANNING FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE
PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME SUNSHINE TO THE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LOOKS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE BERING SEA ON SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, BRISTOL BAY REGION, AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AS IT
MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD, LIKELY BRINGING WINDS AND RAIN TO
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEEP LOW, WITH STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CYCLOGENESIS (STORM
DEVELOPMENT) OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. UP-INLET FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING WHEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS WILL RESUME. WHILE THERE WILL BE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE CHUGACH, SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF OF THE TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY, THERE LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR WIND PATTERN WITH WEAK
UP-INLET FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS
TRANSITIONING TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE FROM THE WEST.
MTL
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