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FXAK68 PAFC 081225
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 AM AKDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SKIRTING THE ALASKA RANGE AND
TRACKING WEST, BRINGING RAIN TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SHOWERS HAVE
OCCURRED THIS MORNING FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD POP UP JUST WEST OF THE TALKEETNAS,
CHUGACH, AND KENAI MOUNTAINS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FARTHER NORTH HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND IMPROVEMENTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE
FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG COOK INLET REMAINS FAVORABLE AGAIN TODAY,
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEYS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE KENAI-COOK INLET COAST AND
ANCHORAGE MAY BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
MORNING, THE LOW TO OUR NORTH DEPARTS NORTH AND WEST ALLOWING FOR
HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRYER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE CURRENTLY DECAYING LOW IN THE
GULF WILL WORK TO REORGANIZE ITSELF AND WILL SWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF FROM EAST TO WEST, INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS TO SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE WITH
THIS WAVE WHILE INLAND AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY THOUGH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR THE PRECIPITATION
FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY AND EAST FOR THE
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONCURRENTLY DIPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TOWARD THE AL-
CAN BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
BEGIN TO PUSH THE LOWER PRESSURE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT LOOKING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE ARE MONITORING FOR A PATTERN SHIFT WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL.
RUX
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND ST. MATTHEW ISLAND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. THIS INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, NUNIVAK ISLAND, AND THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
PRIBILOFS FOR A LONGER PERIOD, THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, DUE
TO THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS BEING SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA.
THE LOW CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MAKES IT TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND STRADDLES CHAIN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. A NORTHWARD TURN
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE LOW LIFTS WEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS LOW AND ITS FRONT ON ITS EASTERN, AND EVENTUALLY, NORTHERN
JOURNEY. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN) BEGINNING TODAY. WIND GUSTS THROUGH COLD
BAY LOOK TO PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA REMAINS MOSTLY QUIET IN THE WEATHER
DEPARTMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG INTERIOR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AND DAYTIME
HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED. THE DRIEST DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY LOOKS MORE UNSETTLED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST AS A STRONG
BERING SEA FRONT LOOKS TO BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN TO
THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ADDITIONAL
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SEND ITS FRONT
NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN AKPEN STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AND
LASTING INTO SUNDAY. STAY TUNED AS WE FINE-TUNE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
SET TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE
SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
BY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THE LONGTERM FORECAST PERIOD, SPANNING FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE
PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME SUNSHINE TO THE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LOOKS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE BERING SEA ON SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, BRISTOL BAY REGION, AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AS IT
MOVES NORTH ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DRIVES THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD, LIKELY BRINGING WINDS AND RAIN TO
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEEP LOW, WITH STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ADDITIONAL AREAS OF CYCLOGENESIS (STORM
DEVELOPMENT) OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.
AVIATION
PANC... CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE TODAY. UP-INLET FLOW ALONG WITH TURNAGAIN WINDS WILL
RETURN TODAY, BRINGING SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE TERMINAL. COOK INLET
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
LIKELY SHIFT WINDS WESTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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