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FXAK68 PAFC 091317
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AS A WEAK LOW IN THE CENTRAL
GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP WITH
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE KENAI PENINSULA, SOUTHERN COPPER
VALLEY AND KODIAK ISLAND, OTHERWISE THE DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE. THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OBSERVED THIS
SPRING WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SETTING UP.
THE EXISTING RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONNECT WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC STARTING
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
BOTH COMBINING TO BRING WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH MOTHER'S DAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SENDS A FRONT AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO START THE WORK WEEK.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...
GENERALLY CLOUDY, WET, AND WINDY WEATHER FOR THE BERING SEA,
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, GENERALLY SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, MUCH MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE BERING SEA. CURRENTLY, A FLOOD ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER NEAR NAPAKIAK AND ALONG
BROWN'S SLOUGH IN BETHEL.
DIVING INTO THE DETAILS...A LOW NORTHWEST OF NIKOLSKI THIS MORNING
WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN CURVE TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. ITS FRONT IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA, AS WELL AS STEADY RAIN. CONDITIONS
BEGIN IMPROVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
WITH THE FRONT PROGRESSING NO FURTHER EAST THAN THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE FAIRER
WEATHER TODAY. CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DAYTIME HEATING,
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE HIGH 50S. WHILE
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SPUR ON SOME CONVECTION, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 20S TO 30S WILL LIKELY MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT TOO MOISTURE-LIMITED FOR STRONG CONVECTION. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND THE LIME VILLAGE AREA, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS STEADILY
IMPROVED, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE WITH THIS STORM,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS. UNLESS MODEL GUIDANCE
SHIFTS DRASTICALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
STORM WILL MOSTLY PERTAIN TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE OTHER ITEM OF
NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO BRING
ELEVATED COASTAL WATER LEVELS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, AROUND
KWIGILLINGOK AND KONGIGANAK. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL AS WE HONE IN ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM.
-CHEN
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7/MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPANS FROM THE BERING SEA TO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
BRING STEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS A SECOND SYSTEM
CROSSES THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND LINGERS IN THE BERING SEA, AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WHEN A TRIPLE POINT ALONG ITS
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
PANC... CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE TODAY. UP-INLET FLOW ALONG WITH TURNAGAIN WINDS WILL
RETURN TODAY, BRINGING SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE TERMINAL. COOK INLET
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
LIKELY SHIFT WINDS WESTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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