505
FZAK80 PAFC 092248
ICEAFC
SEA ICE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM
247 PM AKDT FRIDAY 9 MAY 2025
FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 14 MAY 2025
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SYNOPSIS...A LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARD THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AS IT STRENGTHENS THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN IT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WHILE A LOW MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH MONDAY, THEN THE HIGH WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ814-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ815-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
PKZ860-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ861-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN SHIFT TO EASTERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
SEA ICE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DRIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEA ICE NEAR THE ALASKA COASTLINE WILL
LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERALL.
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ807-WALES TO CAPE ESPENBERG OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ808-CAPE ESPENBERG TO MOTHERWOOD POINT OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ809-MOTHERWOOD POINT TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN OUT TO 10 NM-
PKZ810-CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO CAPE THOMPSON OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ811-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ812-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ813-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ855-KOTZEBUE SOUND GREATER THAN 10 NM-
PKZ856-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ857-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ858-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN FROM 15 TO 85 NM-
PKZ859-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT FROM 15 TO 75 NM-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY
BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND
BEAUFORT SEAS. EXPECT SEA ICE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN WESTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE POLYNYA OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF ALASKA WILL EXPAND WESTWARD UP TO 10 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH OF POINT HOPE, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-BERING SEA-
PKZ803-KWIKPAK PASS TO CAPE STEPHENS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ817-NORTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
ICE COVERED.
PKZ414-BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
PKZ760-BRISTOL BAY GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ761-BRISTOL BAY FROM PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE CHICHAGOF OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ762-BRISTOL BAY FROM CAPE CHICHAGOF TO CAPE PEIRCE OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ763-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ764-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM 15 TO 80 NM-
PKZ765-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ767-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ801-ETOLIN STRAIT TO DALL POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ802-DALL POINT TO KWIKPAK PASS OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ804-CAPE STEPHENS TO MOSES POINT OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ805-MOSES POINT TO SLEDGE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ806-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ816-SOUTH SIDE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND OUT TO 15 NM-
PKZ850-ETOLIN STRAIT TO KWEMELUK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ851-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FROM 15 TO 100 NM-
PKZ852-NORTON SOUND GREATER THAN 15 NM-
PKZ853-KWEMELUK PASS TO KWIKPAK PASS FROM 15 TO 90 NM-
PKZ854-SLEDGE ISLAND TO WALES GREATER THAN 15 NM-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR QUINHAGAK TO 57 5’N 169 26’W TO
57 50’N 173 35’W TO 60 28’N 179 28’W AND CONTINUES INTO RUSSIAN
WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FROM LAND-BASED POINTS IN ALASKA, THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM
NEAR QUINHAGAK TO 30 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL TO 75 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF SAINT PAUL TO 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AND CONTINUES INTO
RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 5)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH. SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE BERING SEA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE BERING SEA. SEA
ICE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
OVERALL, WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ICE PACK IN THE BERING
SEA WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY EAST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MELT. ALSO EXPECT SECTIONS
OF SHOREFAST ICE TO BREAK OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCHRECK
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