460
FXAK68 PAFC 011325
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
DISCUSSION:
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOCUSED ON THE LARGE LOW ROTATING OVER THE BERING SEA AND ITS FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AKPEN AND
WESTERN GULF. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT WITH GALES
AND POCKETS OF STORM FORCE WINDS COMMON OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS
SHOULD HAVE PEAKED, AND WHILE STILL GUSTY, THEY WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF AND GRADIENT
WEAKENS. KODIAK ISLAND, THE BARREN ISLANDS, AND KAMISHAK BAY WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE GULF COASTAL ZONES AS A
MODEST FETCH OF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH. AS THE FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF, HOWEVER, THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL GET CUT
OFF AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL... CROSS-BARRIER FLOW AND COASTAL
RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER DOWN-SLOPING AND GUSTY GAP WINDS TO SET
UP. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH OF THE WESTERN KENAI UP THROUGH THE
MAT VALLEY MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE TODAY. THE COPPER
BASIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED BERING LOW WILL SEND SEVERAL MORE
DISTURBANCES THROUGH, RESULTING IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- PP
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA IS CURRENTLY SENDING A FRONT INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
SOUTHWEST COAST. PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND GALE TO STORM-FORCE
SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE AND DEGRADES
THROUGH THE DAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST INCLUDING KWIGILLINGOK, KONGIGANAK, AND KIPNUK REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY NIGHT AS THESE STRONG ALONG-SHORE WINDS
IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE LINE.
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW, THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAINFALL TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT. FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE MONDAY, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LEVELS OF PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES DUE TO
WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER TIDE HEIGHT. UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES QUASI- STATIONARY
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. FURTHER WEST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS FEATURE, ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING SHORTWAVES, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
COOLER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE AS WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL WITH A TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE OF THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND A SECOND TROUGH TO LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL. A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION MAY THEN DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY FOR THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
THOUGH ANY CLEARING WILL PRESENT A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
-AM/BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
DEVELOPING DOWN-INLET PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN A BREAK
IN THE GUSTY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS THIS MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE IT WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHCENTRAL AND AS HEATING OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
HELPS OVERCOME THE DOWN-INLET PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY.
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK OF
THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER BREAK
IN THE WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE TURNAGAIN ARM JET BENDS BACK
AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.
-AS
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