865
FXAK68 PAFC 020000
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ON A LARGE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY ROTATING FROM THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS TODAY, SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FOR MONDAY, THEN INTO BRISTOL BAY FOR TUESDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE THE DRIVERS FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
CURRENTLY, THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS IS DRIVING A FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTH AND EAST TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GAP WIND ARE INCREASING FROM TURNAGAIN ARM TO
THE KNIK AND COPPER RIVER VALLEYS AS A COASTAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR STRENGTHENS. MODERATE RAIN IS ALSO
FALLING ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
ALASKA RANGE AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE,
HOWEVER, WILL GET CUT OFF MONDAY AS THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
BEFORE IT DOES, HOWEVER, MOST AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST
SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL, THE SOUTHEASTERLY,
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW AND COASTAL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS AS DOWNSLOPING AND GUSTY GAP WINDS SET UP. THIS WILL
HELP TO KEEP MUCH OF THE WESTERN KENAI UP THROUGH THE MAT VALLEY
MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN. THE COPPER BASIN WILL ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE EJECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF
TO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE SET UP WILL BE VERY MUCH THE SAME WITH
THIS FEATURE AS WAS WITH THE PREVIOUS, WETTING RAINS ALONG THE
COAST AND GAP WINDS FOR TYPICAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE WINDS
ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO COOK INLET BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM THE WESTERN KENAI NORTH INTO THE MAT-SU
VALLEYS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BERING LOW WILL THEN SEND SEVERAL MORE
DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE REGION RESULTING IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS
FOR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
-TM
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INLAND TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
CONTINUES TO DEGRADE, AS THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
INCLUDING KWIGILLINGOK, KONGIGANAK, AND KIPNUK REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING ALONG- SHORE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH TIDE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHEST TIDE
LINE.
THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE SOUTHERN BERING ABOUT 100
MILES WEST OF SAINT PAUL AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTH TOWARDS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND GUSTY WINDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE LOW CENTER BEGINS
TO TRACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAINFALL TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT. FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE MONDAY, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LEVELS OF PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES DUE TO
WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER TIDE HEIGHT.
UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE YK DELTA REGION WHERE IT WILL MOVE
INLAND AND DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, THOUGH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAK AND FAST-MOVING NORTH
PACIFIC LOW LIFTS NORTH AND SKIRTS THE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AS IT
HEADS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH. FURTHER WEST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY
MILD CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AND LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS. THE POSITIONING AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH WILL
KEEP A FAVORABLE STORM TRACK FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT COOLER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE LONG TERM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOR THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
THOUGH ANY CLEARING/DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRESENT A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
-AM/BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
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