637
FXAK68 PAFC 021240
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
440 AM AKDT MON JUN 2 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT
3 DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY GAPS WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN,
KNIK, AND THE COPPER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY, THROUGH
SPRINKLES TO PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DOWNSLOPED
AREAS.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, INCREASING MARINE WINDS AND
GAP WINDS ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH MORE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT, EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WITH NOW
LIKELY RAIN FROM THE WESTERN KENAI NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY VEER AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY,
WHICH WILL MITIGATE DOWNSLOPING AND ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY AS WELL.
FOR WEDNESDAY THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH. THE LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE
UP COOK INLET OR STAY FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND TRACK TOWARDS CORDOVA.
THIS POSITIONING WILL DICTATE THE PRECIPITATION FIELD, BUT FOR
NOW IT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL GET SOME
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF WHERE
THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL WILL FALL. ALL THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW
AT LEAST SHOW THAT THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THE KENAI PENINSULA, WHICH SHOULD MEAN AN END TO THE
SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
-CJ
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3)...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING IN THE BERING SEA
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MOST
OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD BRISTOL BAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA AS IT WORKS WEST TO EAST TODAY. BY MIDDAY TODAY, THE
LOW WILL PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
RAINFALL INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BUT BOTH WIND MAGNITUDES AND RAIN
RATES WILL BE WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST, ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE TODAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LEVELS OF
PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES DUE TO WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER TIDE
HEIGHT.
UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE YK DELTA REGION WHERE IT WILL TRACK
INLAND AND DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, THOUGH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAK AND FAST-MOVING NORTH
PACIFIC LOW LIFTS NORTH AND SKIRTS THE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AS IT
HEADS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH. FURTHER WEST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY
MILD CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY)...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AND LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS. THE POSITIONING AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH WILL
KEEP A FAVORABLE STORM TRACK FOR SOUTHCENTRAL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT COOLER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE LONG TERM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOR THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
THOUGH ANY CLEARING/DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRESENT A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
-AM/BL
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING
OUT OF THE TURNAGAIN ARM ARE ONCE AGAIN BENDING SOUTH AND AWAY
FROM THE TERMINAL FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING, BUT WILL RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR
WINDS TO BEND INTO THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS OR SO WILL BE COMMON ONCE WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
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