336
FXAK68 PAFC 041337
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
537 AM AKDT WED JUN 4 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
YET ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO THE
BARREN ISLANDS BEFORE TAKING A NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE SOUND
TONIGHT AND INLAND TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTH ON RADAR, AND VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE
SHOULD RECEIVE SOME LIGHT RAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
A COASTAL RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO THE
MAT VALLEY AND COPPER VALLEY TODAY THOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TURNAGAIN ARM WIND AS THE DOWN-INLET PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMPETES WITH A WEAK THERMAL LOW IN THE INTERIOR.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS FAR AS FULLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT
IT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMULATION A BIT FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH TO
PALMER. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOWER TO FILL INTO THE COPPER
BASIN, LIKELY NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUND AND DOWNSLOPING WEAKENS.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL,
ALLOWING FOR A A SLIGHT DRYING TREND AS WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES DRIES THINGS OUT SLIGHTLY. KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN KENAI, AND EVEN POSSIBLY ANCHORAGE MAY SEE
SOME SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY, SOME RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRY
TO BUILD IN, BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
TRACK NORTH INTO THE GULF ON SATURDAY, BRINGING YET MORE RAIN AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UNSETTLED BUT FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES. SEVERAL WEAKER
LOWS MOVE AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE BIGGEST THINGS TO WATCH
FOR WILL BE THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY, AS WELL AS FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING, SOME ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN: THE EXACT LOCATION AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS, AND THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF FOG. IN ADDITION, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY CONTINUE
TO LOOK MARGINAL, ESPECIALLY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S OR LOWER. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS THEY REMAIN
POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL, A BIT SKEPTICAL THAT WE'LL SEE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
-CHEN
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL
TRACK ACROSS ALASKAN PENINSULA, SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COOLER AND WETTER THAN
AVERAGE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY.
-DD
AVIATION
PANC...GUSTY WINDS OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM MAY LINGER IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN TO
MOVE IN BY THE LATE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
WITH RAINFALL, HOWEVER EXPECT RAINFALL RATES TO GENERALLY BE
LIGHT. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND NOON TODAY, AND CONTINUING
INTO THE LATE EVENING.
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