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FXAK68 PAFC 051246
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 AM AKDT THU JUN 5 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEYS WHILE
THE COPPER BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTH AND EAST INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE SOUTHERN MAT-SU LATER TODAY.
STRATUS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS, BUT THE JUNE SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH IT AS THE
DAY GOES ON.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS AS SOME
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND.
WHILE IT WILL BE SUNNY TILL THE AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW WILL REBUILD THE COASTAL RIDGE, THUS GENERATING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PESKY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE TURNAGAIN ARM, KNIK
ARM AND COPPER VALLEY. LATER IN THE EVENING THE LEADING FRONT WILL
REACH KODIAK ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY THE GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE MAIN CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COAST, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BLANKET THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER POLAR TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ALASKA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK LOWS CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING RAIN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING SEA, THOUGH AN INCOMING FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
THE RIDGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE OVERALL WEATHER WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BENIGN; THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HONING IN
ON THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ON THE ALASKA WEATHER MAP, THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RELAXES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING A MEDIUM AMPLITUDE
SET OF WAVES. THE CLOSED LOW CENTERS OVER WESTERN ALASKA WEAKEN AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY, CONTINUING
INTO WESTERN CANADA FOR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
USING GFS / ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS.
A DECAYING SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST,
SPREADING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE EASTERN KENAI TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER FOR SUNDAY. LIGHTER RAIN EXTENDS TO THE ALASKA
RANGE FROM THIS LOW. IN THE WEST, A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS
LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK.
- KUTZ
AVIATION
PANC...RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAINFALL THIS MORNING TO
EASE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS SHOWERS COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PREVAIL. SKIES TO CLEAR TONIGHT, MAINTAINING
THE VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
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