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FZAK30 PAFC 272017
ICOAFC
SEA ICE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1217 PM AKDT FRIDAY 27 JUNE 2025
..JUNE 2025 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK
SEA ICE IN THE BERING SEA AS A WHOLE HAD MOSTLY MELTED BY THE
BEGINNING OF JUNE. HOWEVER, THERE WERE LINGERING AREAS OF ICE FROM
NORTH AND EAST OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND SOUTHWARD TO ST. MATTHEW
ISLAND. THERE WAS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF PACK ICE IN SOUTHERN NORTON
SOUND. THE OCEAN CURRENTS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WERE ALREADY
KEEPING OPEN WATER PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA. SHOREFAST ICE LINGERED IN KOTZEBUE SOUND AND ALONG THE COAST
FROM WALES TO SHISHMAREF.
HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE MONTH, ALASKA WATERS OF THE BERING SEA
WERE SEA ICE FREE. THE ICE EDGE HAS PROGRESSED WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA. KOTZEBUE SOUND SHOREFAST ICE HAD COMPLETELY
BROKEN UP AND MOSTLY MELTED. AN AREA OF PACK ICE IS LINGERING ALONG
THE COAST BETWEEN ESPENBERG AND POINT HOPE THROUGH CAPE LISBURNE.
ANOTHER AREA OF OPEN WATER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BETWEEN CAPE LISBURNE
AND POINT LAY SAVE FOR SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL ICE ADVECTING IN FROM
BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE BEAUFORT SEA REMAINED COMPLETELY ICE
COVERED, HOWEVER, SEASONAL MELT BEGAN TO SHOW AROUND THE MACKENZIE
RIVER DELTA AS WELL AS ALONG THE SHOREFAST ICE OF THE NORTH SLOPE
COAST FROM RIVER DISCHARGE.
AS WE LOOK FORWARD THROUGH BREAK-UP, ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS. ANALOG YEARS USED
FOR THIS OUTLOOK WERE 2024/2023 BOTH HAVING SIMILAR PACK ICE
LINGERING IN THE CHUKCHI SEA, AS WELL AS 2010/2008. THERE IS GREATER
THAN NORMAL CONCENTRATIONS OF MULTI-YEAR ICE IN THE SOUTHERN
BEAUFORT SEA, AS WELL AS IMPINGING INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS ICE MAY DELAY SEASONAL BREAK-UP BY A WEEK OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: ANYONE TRAVELING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT OR
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THERE IS AN
UNUSUAL AREA OF SECOND YEAR SEA ICE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
RUSSIA. AS THE SEA ICE IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MELTS, THIS
SECOND YEAR ICE WILL LIKELY DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE RUSSIAN COAST
AND MAY OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INTO ALASKA WATERS BEFORE MELTING THIS
SUMMER. PLEASE REFER TO THE ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM’S 5 DAY SEA ICE
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE IN EACH SECTION BELOW.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA
THE BERING STRAIT TO 20 NM N/S OF CENTER LINE, IS EXPECTED TO BE ICE
FREE DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE.
THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO BE SEA ICE FREE DURING THE LAST WEEK
OF JUNE.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM WALES TO ESPENBERG, THREE TENTHS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF JUNE AND SEA ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
FOR KOTZEBUE SOUND, THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE. SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE BY THE SECOND
WEEK OF JULY.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE, THREE-
TENTHS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY. SEA ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.
FOR POINT HOPE TO ICY CAPE WEST TO 170W, THREE-TENTHS CONCENTRATION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY. SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR BY THE END OF AUGUST, THOUGH SOME ICE MAY LINGER OFFSHORE
INTO SEPTEMBER.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM POINT HOPE TO WAINWRIGHT, THREE TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY, THOUGH
SOME OF THE OFFSHORE ICE PACK MAY LINGER AND KEEP THIS AREA FROM
REACHING THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION UNTIL MID-JULY. SEA ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM WAINWRIGHT TO POINT BARROW, SEA ICE IS
EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE.
THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS POSSIBLE BY THE LAST WEEK OF JULY, BUT
MORE LIKELY IN THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. ICE FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND MID-AUGUST. THERE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL
CONCENTRATIONS OF MULTI-YEAR ICE CURRENTLY LINGERING IN THIS AREA
WHICH MAY DELAY MELTING THIS SUMMER.
FOR ICY CAPE TO POINT BARROW WEST TO 170W, SEA ICE CONCENTRATIONS
MAY REACH LESS THAN THREE TENTHS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONCENTRATIONS OF MULTI-YEAR ICE ARE LINGERING IN
THIS AREA AND MAY DELAY MELTING BY A WEEK OR TWO. ICE FREE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR NORTH AND WEST OF POINT BARROW TO 75N AND 170W, THREE TENTHS IS
EXPECTED AROUND MID-SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS MAY NOT HAPPEN
THIS YEAR, BUT IF THEY DO IT WILL BE LATE SEPTEMBER.
..BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT, SEA ICE
IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
SEA ICE CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THREE TENTHS AND SEA
ICE FREE IN LATE-AUGUST.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND, SEA ICE
MAY NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY. SEA ICE
MAY REACH THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION IN THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST
AND BECOME SEA ICE FREE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST.
FOR NAVIGATIONAL WATERS FROM FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT,
SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE SHOREFAST BY THE END OF JUNE.
THREE-TENTHS CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST HALF OF AUGUST
AND SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF AUGUST, BUT MAY BE EARLY
SEPTEMBER.
FOR POINT BARROW TO CAPE HALKETT TO 75N, THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION
IS POSSIBLE IN LATE AUGUST BUT IS MORE LIKELY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF SEPTEMBER. ICE FREE CONDITIONS MAY ONLY REACH 73N OR 74N, BUT IF
THEY DO REACH 75N IT WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR HARRISON BAY TO FLAXMAN ISLAND TO 75N, THREE TENTHS
CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. ICE FREE
CONDITIONS MAY ONLY REACH 73N OR 74N, IF THEY REACH 75N IT WILL BE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
FOR FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT TO 75N, SEA ICE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THREE TENTHS CONCENTRATION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
AUGUST. ICE FREE CONDITIONS MAY ONLY REACH 73N OR 74N, IF THEY REACH
75N IT WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
LAWSON
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