202
FXAK68 PAFC 010101
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SITS IN A COL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST, AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING DIVERGENT WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOR KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA, THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL PUSH IN A VERY MOIST FRONT BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
BERING SEA. FOR KODIAK ISLAND, 3-DAY RAIN TOTALS COULD BE AROUND
2-3 INCHES AS THE FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FRONT, SO SKIES
WILL BE CLOUDY BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH, MUCH LOWER.
MARINERS TRANSITING AROUND THE BARREN ISLANDS SHOULD BEWARE OF
WINDS TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA, GENERALLY EXPECT WARMER
AND MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS (WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND THE LOW NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. FOR TODAY, SHOWERS ARE
TAPERING OFF IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH SKIES CLEARING, WARMER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HELPING TO PROMOTE CONVECTION. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD IS LOWER
DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENT BEING TEMPERED BY THE RAIN AND FOG FROM
EARLIER TODAY. TOMORROW LOOKS EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE RIDGE NUDGES IN AND WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, A ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
FROM THE ARCTIC WILL BRING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SO FAR THIS WEEK. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE,
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG THE NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN,
THEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FOOTPRINT FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, AND PERHAPS EVEN
REACHING THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. EASTERLY
WAVES TRANSITING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON THURSDAY COULD ALSO BRING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WHERE THESE STORMS
INITIATE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL
NUDGE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL, WHICH WILL, IN TURN, WILL AFFECT HOW FAR
SOUTH THESE EASTERLY WAVES ARE DISPLACED AS THEY EXIT OUT OF
CANADA.
-KC
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING A STRONG FRONT ACROSS ALASKA'S WEST COAST BRINGING GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW CONTINUED
RAINFALL THROUGH TOMORROW FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA. RAIN CONTINUES TO
LINGER ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN AKPEN AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE
EASTERN BERING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AKPEN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE
AKPEN, BRISTOL BAY, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE BERING
WITH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTEND WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE. AREAS OF FOG ARE
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP FOR THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS,
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM IS THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER HIGH IN
NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL ALLOW EASTERLY FLOW INTO INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, AND THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. EASTERLY STORM MOTION MAY ALLOW
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO STREAM INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL HAVE A LARGE LOW IN THE BERING
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THE MAINLAND COAST
SEEING RAIN BY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL STALL OUT JUST OFF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEND FRONTS EASTWARD,
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE SOME RIDGING BUILD IN ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION. THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN, TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS, AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY
WILL RETAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE RIDGE. THIS
DRYING TREND WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A FRONT FROM THE LOW IN
THE BERING WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FIRST IN KODIAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN AT THE SOUTHCENTRAL
COASTLINE. ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY MAY RECEIVE RAINFALL
FROM THIS FRONT AS WELL IF IT ORIENTS CORRECTLY. THIS SCENARIO IS
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR AT THIS MOMENT.
ADDITIONAL WEAKER FRONTS PUSH INTO THE GULF INTO MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAINFALL.
-JAR
.AVIATION...
PANC...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME LOWER CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT WILL LINGER THROUGH
COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD THEY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL LIKELY BURN OFF. THERE'S A CHANCE THE
MVFR CIGS FROM THIS MORNING WILL REMATERIALIZE BETWEEN 9Z AND 15Z
BUT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DRY
AND CIGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST, CHANGING BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY.
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