337
FXAK68 PAFC 021305
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
505 AM AKDT WED JUL 2 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A VERY NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IS BEING
SQUEEZED BY A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONT TO THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SHOULD EDGE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE LOW DRIVING THE FRONT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WHILE THIS SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE SUNSHINE
FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND THE SUSITNA
VALLEY, IT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER KODIAK AND KEEP RAIN OVER THE
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY. THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK WILL LIKELY SEE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD.
THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL HELP ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTHEAST TO PROGRESS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THEN TO THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND OVER
THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT TODAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THEM WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED STORMS AFTER TODAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY (FRIDAY) THE PATTERN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND A
DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THESE DAYS IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDS, OR WILL
THERE BE MEANINGFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE? WHAT MAY END UP BEING
THE SITUATION IS FOR ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM UP THE LOWER LEVELS
AND CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THIS
IS A PATTERN THAT OFTEN LEADS TO EASTERLY WAVES THAT SUDDENLY
DEVELOP AND BRING ORGANIZED SHOWERS. WHILE THERE ARE NOT ANY
MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OF THIS NATURE
AT THIS POINT, IT IS SOMETHING WORTH LOOKING FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AND TRANSIT THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS OF THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AS
RECENT HEAVY RAINS FILTER DOWN THROUGH THE WOOD-TIKCHIK DRAINAGE
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER INTERIOR ALASKA,
INITIATING A DRYING TREND MARKED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
TO THE WEST, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT OF A NEW LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING SWEEPS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP FOR THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS BENEATH THE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN FULL
AGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ELEVATED
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE
ALASKA PENINSULA REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF BRISTOL BAY STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL ALSO DRIVE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS HEAVY
RAINFALL IN KODIAK ISLAND AND THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE MAINLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORKWEEK. INLAND AREAS INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE WILL SEE LESS OR NO RAINFALL DEPENDING ON DOWNSLOPING.
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND
EASTERLY WAVES. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST FROM
MONDAY ONWARD WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING MANY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS MULTIPLE LOWS FORMING IN THE WEST AND TRACKING
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHERE OTHERS HAVE THE PREVIOUS LOW
STALLING OUT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF. THE ONLY THING THAT
CAN BE REASONABLY AFFIRMED AT THIS POINT IS RAINFALL FOR KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL COASTLINE. AS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FOR NEXT WEEK, AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY RULES THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME
KIND OF COL OR WEAK FLOW MAY SET UP AND LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS
IN THE MAINLAND. THE BERING WILL SEE SOME KIND OF LOW MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
-JAR
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
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