349
FXAK68 PAFC 030041
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
441 PM AKDT WED JUL 2 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE, ITS CENTER LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, THAT WILL
PROMOTE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
CARRIED EAST TO WEST, RESULTING IN LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ALONG THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES (WRANGELL/TALKEETNA).
OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S (COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOW
TO MID 60'S).
KODIAK AND AFOGNAK ISLANDS ARE A VERY DIFFERENT STORY. STEADY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC,
ITS FRONT WEAKENING WITH IT. CHANCES FOR RAIN LESSEN ON FRIDAY,
MARGINALLY, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDING OFF A LOW MOVING OVER THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS
NORTHWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA TOWARDS THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
BY SATURDAY EVENING.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK IS TAPERING OFF AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE REGION TRANSITS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. CONTINUE TO EXPECT ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS FOR
THE GREATER BRISTOL BAY AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AS RECENT
HEAVY RAINS FILTER DOWN THROUGH THE WOOD-TIKCHIK DRAINAGE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, INITIATING A DRYING
TREND MARKED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY WILL BE
THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE PATTERN SHIFT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 70'S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTH, THE INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY REGION COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
TO THE WEST, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS UNDER AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN) ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF BY MONDAY. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHERN AKPEN SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH DRYER CONDITIONS RETURNING THERE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY STILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEING EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY, THE REST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN BERING.
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL, EXPECT THE COAST, INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND,
TO BE THE WETTEST AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE RAINIEST DAYS AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY TO GULF FOR MONDAY. SHOWERS ALSO LOOK TO
PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS
ON JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY
AND COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE GULF LOW LOOKS TO BRING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE GULF MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW, SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE DAY
FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
MAYBE THE SUSITNA VALLEY NEAR THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL FEATURES MORE UNCERTAINTY AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC WITH PLACEMENT OF FEATURES.
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
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