751
FXAK68 PAFC 031258
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKDT THU JUL 3 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3: TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WE HAVE SETTLED INTO AN OVERALL PATTERN WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN FEATURE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABSENT FROM ANY UNEXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG EASTERLY WAVE (A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
PROPAGATES FROM THE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION) WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SUNNY PERIODS. HOWEVER, THESE SUNNY PERIODS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH SUSITNA VALLEY. THEREFORE, WHILE THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE, THERE WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
PERIODS AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT POSITIONED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUT SOUTHCENTRAL INTO AN ARE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND FULLY CLEAR THE SKIES OF ALL CLOUDS.
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST, INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND, THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CLOUDS TO THAT REGION. KODIAK ISLAND IS THE AREA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE MOST RAIN TODAY, BUT OTHER AREAS ALONG THE
GULF COAST MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF RAIN AS WELL. HOWEVER, BY
TOMORROW, THIS LOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH AND WEAKENED
FOR AREAS SUCH AS SEWARD TO SEE SOME NICE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.
FOR THE WEEKEND, WE WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR ANY ORGANIZED EASTERLY
WAVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTHWEST BUT
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE PACIFIC SIDE OF
THE AKPEN AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH
AREAS OF HIGHER VORTICITY WILL PASS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
TODAY, INTRODUCING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN,
AND NORTH OF, ANIAK AND SLEETMUTE THIS AFTERNOON. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
60S AND 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
TO THE WEST, THE FRONT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
BERING WILL PUSH LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
AND PRIBILOFS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA
FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD FEATURES AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA (AKPEN) ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF BY MONDAY. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHERN AKPEN SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH DRYER CONDITIONS RETURNING THERE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY STILL KEEP
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEING EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY, THE REST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN BERING.
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL, EXPECT THE COAST, INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND,
TO BE THE WETTEST AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE RAINIEST DAYS AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY TO GULF FOR MONDAY. SHOWERS ALSO LOOK TO
PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS
ON JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY
AND COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE GULF LOW LOOKS TO BRING IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE GULF MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW, SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE DAY
FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
MAYBE THE SUSITNA VALLEY NEAR THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL FEATURES MORE UNCERTAINTY AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC WITH PLACEMENT OF FEATURES.
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
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