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FXAK68 PAFC 032351
AFDAFC
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 PM AKDT THU JUL 3 2025
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH POCKETS OF SUNSHINE CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE INTERIOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY. A
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA SWEEPS ITS FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, HELPING
SHOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PROMOTING A PATTERN CHANGE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL. THE APPROACHING FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60'S
(LOWER 60'S FOR COASTAL AREAS) EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT, MOVING FROM KODIAK NORTH TOWARD THE
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL
FEED INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE
SUSITNA VALLEY, PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST, INCLUDING THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA, LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS
1 THROUGH 3: TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WEAKENING, OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED SOUTH OF
THE AK PEN THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXITING INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
ITS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPONENT WITH BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
IS SENDING EASTERLY WAVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK, WHICH IS CAUSING
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY,
IN PARTICULAR FOR SLEETMUTE, ANIAK, AND LIME VILLAGE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK AS UNSTABLE TODAY, AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BY THIS EVENING TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA WITH RAIN, ELEVATED
WINDS, AND AREAS OF FOG. THE PRIBILOFS WILL LIKELY FEEL THE MOST
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY WITH FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY, BUT THESE IMPACTS,
TO A LESSER EXTENT, WILL BE FELT ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS
WELL. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SHEMYA AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
BECOME BLANKETED BY FOG AND LOW STRATUS STARTING THIS EVENING
INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. LIKEWISE THIS EVENING, COLD BAY WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH
THE AREA. IF CURRENT GUIDANCE HOLDS, PEAK WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KTS
AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STALL.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS SHOW THE COMPLEX LOW AND ITS ENERGY
SHIFTS ABRUPTLY EASTWARD, WITH MUCH OF ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE AK PEN AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY
MORNING. BY SUNDAY MORNING, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
SKIRT JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DEEPENS AS IT DOES
SO. FOR SOUTHWEST AK, SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
-AM
LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, THERE IS MODERATE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT AN
ARCTIC TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWESTWARD NEARING SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR
THURSDAY. WHILE SOUTHCENTRAL SEE RAINY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RANGES MONDAY, SOUTHWEST AND THE AKPEN WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN INTERIOR SOUTHWEST.
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR THE
INTERIOR WHILE THE COAST SEES QUIETER WEATHER BY THEN.
AS THE ARCTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD FOR TUESDAY,
SHORTWAVES ALSO LOOK TO DIG DOWN AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST. MOST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORTWAVES
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ALONG THE WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS FILL IN BACK FURTHER
EAST IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND
THE SOUTHERLY DIGGING TROUGH BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. RAIN CHANCES
MAKE IT BACK TO THE SOUTHERN COAST FOR THURSDAY WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES BEING AROUND BRISTOL BAY AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR AND THE SUSITNA
VALLEY.
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN MONDAY THROUGH BRINGING RAIN TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A KAMCHATKA LOW, NOT THAT STRONG, MIGHT IMPACT
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE LOW TRACK FOR THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
PANC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY TURNAGAIN
ARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
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